Forecast quality
Backtests: each past quarter forecast after the fact with only earlier filings. "Guess" = same as last quarter. Trust: trusted beats the guess in ≥60% of quarters and has the lower median miss · weak beats it in under half or has the higher median miss · mixed otherwise.
| Ticker | KPI | Next forecast | Graded | Model median miss | Guess median miss | Beats guess | In range (live) | Trust |
|---|
Reported (8-K)
Backtest forecast
Guess (last quarter)
Gap
Next forecast + range
Backtest vs actual
| Quarter | Forecast | Actual | Miss | Guess | Guess miss | Closer |
|---|